Introduction Nigeria is a dangerous country to come from: if you decide to make yourself aware of what is going on there, you can have coronary thrombosis if you are not careful.
One has to be careful. If it is not one thing, it is another.
I have for example spent the last three weeks preparing to release four "arithmetical" policy articles:
on the Basic Education Bill, proposing an alternative policy to the
designation of 25 educationally-disadvantaged states out of 36;
on the Electoral Bill, showing that in fact there has been a bandwagon
effect, real or rigged, when a presidential election comes first in the
series;
on the latest 2002 Budget, indicating that the administration's has a
cash-flow problem, and that its stated priorities do not match budget
expenditures past or proposed;
on the 1978 Land Use Act, that it should be scrapped and removed from
the 1999 Constitution in favor of a fairer "80/20" devolution rule.
All the articles will be released in due course. However, I have had to abandon the original "band-wagon" thrust of the Electoral Bill article, because it now sounds trite: as the Yoruba would say, "Baba njo'na, on bere irugbon" or freely translated "It is foolish to ask about the state of the beard of a man who is on fire and in danger for his very life."
My abandonment has to do with the fact that the re-ordering of the Elections now has the more sinister effect of excluding new parties from participating in the 2003 election, a new provision smuggled in at the last minute in Joint Conference by deft political machinations of a
pushy Executive President and a compliant National Assembly leadership.
"How We Arrived At Our Position" For those who may not have been following closely enough, the following ThisDay Online report is a good summary about some activities about the Electoral bill. Here is what the Joint Conference Committee Chair Senator Osunbor had to say about "How We Arrived at Our Position" BEFORE turning their Electoral Bill Clean Version # 1 to the President for his assent.
Of specific concern to us here are the Order of Elections, and Participation of Parties.
How We Arrived at Our Position" - Osunbor Election Dates-Clause 15 The Senate version in its clause 16 provided that the general elections shall be in three phases, that is, Federal Elections, State Elections and Local Government Elections, to be held on a date to be appointed by the INEC. The House version, on the other required in its clause 14 that elections to all public offices in Nigeria shall be held every four years on the same day and date as may be determined by the Commission.
After considering all the arguments for and against each version of the Bill the Committee adopted the Senate version of the sequence of elections. In essence, the general elections shall take place in three phases, starting with the Federal Election, then state elections, and
lastly, local government elections. A period of two weeks must elapse between one election and the other.
The reason for adopting the Senate version is that in spite of the weighty reasons advanced in support of one-day elections, such as the need to eliminate 'bandwagon effect' and to save cost, the committee was persuaded by the argument that INEC may not be able to cope with the burden of
holding all elections in one day.
Moreover, the electorate may not be ripe enough for the complexities of such an exercise at this point in time....
Participation in Election: Clause 80 This clause was adopted from the House version. It has no equivalent in the Senate version. It provides that where a political party, at the close of nominations for a general election, fails to sponsor at least 15 per cent of the candidates for Councillorship, Council Chairmanship and State Houses of Assembly, respectively, throughout the Federation, spread among two-thirds of the states of Federation and Federal Capital Territory, it shall not participate in the general elections.
It is important to point out that whereas it is relatively easy to register a political party, this clause will ensure that only serious political parties can participate in general elections. It is hoped that this will challenge the political parties to work hard to justify their
relevance and status as truly national in their outlook and presence.
Clause 80 (2) sets out the amount of deposit payable by candidates for the various elective offices and it is non-refundable.
We notice that while the single "persuasive" letter by the INEC merely changed the minds of the Conference to accept the Senate version of STAGGERED elections, it contained no preference for which came first.
Despite self-admission of "weighty reasons advanced"...such as the need to eliminate 'bandwagon effect'", this "final" statement by this Joint Conference then falls strangely silent about this particular concern as it went ahead to choose that Federal (ie Presidential and National Assembly) elections would come first before others.
Why did this happen? One insight is given by Senator Gbenga Aluko in an interview published by The Guardian:
'Governors Are Targets of Electoral Law' The Guardian, Sunday, December 9, 2001
Excerpt
Q: Let us look at the order of the elections. Many people are wondering why the National Assembly should allow the presidential election should come before the other elections and that it is a recipe for crisis.
A: During my own contribution in the Senate, my position was that I believe the presidential election should be the last election. That is what is done in most democracies. But nothing stops us from experimenting. You see, the issue of the order of the election really was generated because we do not have a cohesive, harmonious relationship between the national government and the state government and the local government, even within the party. There is too much ministerial supervision between members of the National Assembly and State government, between state governors and local government chairman. So you find that everybody is trying to weigh the bill or a law in such a way and manner that will put them in advantage. And the electoral bill is the responsibility of the National Assembly to promulgate and pass into a law.
>>> Read more of the interview
Thus, according to Senator Aluko, this re-arrangement was nothing more than petty power politics between the National Assembly members and the state governors, and possibly little to do with band-wagon effect.
"Consider My Proposed Amendments" What next happened to Clause 80 AFTER this Electoral Bill Clean Version #1 arrived at the President's desk is even more intriguing. Initially, as read above, it talked only about failure "to sponsor at least 15 per cent of the candidates for Councillorship, Council Chairmanship and State Houses of Assembly, respectively, throughout the Federation, spread among two-thirds of the states of Federation and Federal Capital Territory."
The president thought differently - and this is how.
Excerpt from "The Electoral Act: An Untidy Affair" After receiving the electoral bill from the National Assembly on December 5, Obasanjo wrote a letter to the Chairman and members of the conference committee (the joint committee of the Senate and the House of Representatives) on the 2001 Electoral Bill under the reference:
PRES./134.
In the letter which he routed through the Senate President and the Speaker, House of Representatives, the President said: "I write to acknowledge the receipt of the bill presented to me by the National Assembly for my assent in accordance with the provisions of the 1999
Constitution.
"Having carefully gone through the bill, I wish to propose that your Joint Conference Committee reconsider the provisions of Section 80, sub-section 1 thereof for the following reasons:
For the stability of the polity and the survival of our nascent democracy, it is imperative that only serious and creditable political
parties should be allowed to participate in general elections;
This should be determined by the acceptability of the political parties
by Nigerians by subjecting the parties to an initial electoral contest at
the grassroots; and
Therefore, political parties should be able to establish acceptance by
Nigerians winning certain percentage of chairmanship and councillorship
positions at the local government election spread across the country.
"Consequently, I wish to propose that a registered political party must win at least 15 percent of the chairmanship and councillorship positions in the federation, spread among two-thirds of the states and the Federal Capital Territory to be eligible to participate in any general election.
"I hope you will expeditiously consider my proposed amendments after which I will assent to the bill."
>>> Read More
Lo and behold, the president's suggestion was what was on Clean Version # 2 of the bill, which became the final bill signed by him, notwithstanding the fact that these provisions were TOTALLY alien and not agreed by the National Assembly! Nobody can blame the president for making a
suggestion, but certainly the National Assembly members have been too compliant.
Or was there a quid-pro-quo somewhere?
Let Senator Gbenga Aluko, in his interview, once again put things in some context about the astonishment of some of the National Assembly members at this turn of events:
Q: Related to that is the aspect of the bill that has to do with participation of new political parties in the 2003. The bill also requires them to first of all participate in the local government elections and secure, at least, 10 per cent of the total voter cast before being
eligible for the federal and state elections just like the existing three political parties did. But here is an arrangement where the local government election comes last. By implication, does it not amount to denying new participation in the federal and state election in 2003?
A: I think you have misinterpreted the clauses in the bill. What it says is that it allows for parties to be registered and gives conditions that the parties must meet. Those conditions that you have to get spread in specific states and they must have officers. Quite honestly, the conditions are liberal, they are as liberal as you can guess. The clause you are talking about says that after a party has been registered by INEC, the party must field candidates up to 15 per cent of the offices available. If they do not fill candidates up to that, then their registration now comes into question. So, it doesn't say they must have fielded because they are registered.
Q: Sir, I don't know if you have seen the clean copy of the bill because it is there in section 80 of the bill.
A: You see, it can not be so because the order of the election puts the presidential election first , state election second and the local government election. It can not be that you must meet certain criteria as per council election because it comes last. So what you are saying now is that the National Assembly is implying that they can not participate in presidential and state gubernatorial elections. No, I can tell you for sure, that is not the intention of the bill. That insertion must go back to the senate, if there is , for ratification. And I do not believe that senators of the Federal Republic or members of the committee on INEC will
be so careless to think that they can get away with such a thing. After all, you as pressmen have already identified the seeming error. If it is true you will pursue it to the entire world and the world will react . I always say that in as much as the national Assembly, the executive and the Judiciary have a responsibility in this democracy, the press has massive responsibilities. So, if you find out this anomaly, you are privileged to have the copies given to us, senators in the chamber. If what was given to us in the senate chamber and we ratified is different from what is finally assented to, it is your responsibility to highlight it. I have my doubt that the members of the INEC committee, because membership comes form all parties, will engage in such fraudulent practices. I do not think that the senate of which I am a part, will engage in that. But if you have more concrete and convincing information than I have then it is your
responsibility to get me and the Nigerian populace now. So we will know what we are dealing with and where we are going too. I can not see how you can say you will allow political parties to be registered then you turn around and say only when they meet conditions that they can meet in the
last elections. It means that you don't want them to participate in the election. That is not the intention of the national Assembly. I can tell you that categorically, we wanted a level playing field. That was the spirit of the bill and I still believe that that is still the intent of
the bill.
Q: As a senator of the federal Republic, if this turns out to be true, what is going to be your reactions?
A: I can tell you for sure, you can be rest assured that I am not one person that shies away from controversy. I will personally bring it up on the floor of the senate that I will not be part and parcel of that kind of fraud, if it turns out to be true. I will not and I know that so many senators in that chamber who have integrity, credibility will not accept a few people to tamper with the bill, the spirit of which we all collectively agree; the intent of which we all collectively agree and the bill that we believed was passed to create a level field particularly on this issue of new parties. I can tell you that majority of the senators, if at all there are some senators who connived to do this, majority of the senators will kick against it.
Thus, we see that in this interview, Senator Gbenga Aluko has exposed the real deal behind this controversial bill!
Epilogue It appears that the same way in which the Land Tenure Act was "smuggled" into the 1979 Constitution by military dictatorial fiat of General Obasanjo's regime is again the way in which this Section 80 emasculating party formation has now been smuggled into the 2001 Electoral Act by
civilian dictatorial fiat.
If I want to be sympathetic, I would suggest that somebody forgot the REVISED ORDER of the elections BEFORE accepting the "Obasanjo Amendment" to the Electoral Bill. If I want to be cynical, I would suggest that everybody knew PRECISELY what they were doing: limiting the number of new parties that would present presidential and National Assembly candidates to oppose the incumbents.
Whatever be the case, the verdict is in: We virtually have an elected dictatorship in Nigeria currently.
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