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What Happened in Ogun Polls?
With Commentary by Mobolaji Aluko, PhD

April 24, 2003

Compatriots:

Let us inspect:

OGUN GUBERNATORIAL RESULTS

AD: Osoba Olusegun Aremu 231,982 33.08% PDP: Daniel Justus Olagbenga 449,335 64.06% Total Valid Votes 701,375 Rejected Ballots 45,921 Valid Votes + Rejected Ballots 747,296 Number of Voters on Register 1,576,875 Congratulations, Gbenga Daniel! ANPP Buhari Muhammadu 680 0.05% PDP Chief Olusegun Obasanjo 1,360,170 99.92% Total Valid Votes 1,361,251 Rejected Ballots 4,116 Valid Votes + Rejected Ballots 1,365,367 Number of Voters on Register 1,576,875 Congratulations, Aremu Obasanjo!

Total + Rejected of [ Presidential - Gubernatorial ] = 618,071

Hmmmm...that is odd! Voting on the same day, in the same ballot box?

So Wazio Adio might as well ask: "Who ate some ballot papers - or manufactured some others?"

Inquiring minds want to know!

It is TRIGGERS like these that INEC itself should use to self-investigate, not ask people to "go to court."

Bolaji Aluko


This Day
April 25, 2003

What Happened in Ogun Polls?
News Review
By Waziri Adio

A close study of results released by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, seems to have supported allegations of irregularities in last weekend's polls.

The result from Ogun State, the president's home state, shows a wide discrepancy between the total number of votes cast for the gubernatorial and presidential candidates.

The total number of votes cast for all the presidential candidates exceeded that of the gubernatorial candidates by 618,071 votes. This staggering difference has set many eyebrows askew.

During the elections voters were given two ballot papers: the shorter one for the gubernatorial poll and the longer for the presidential.

>From results cross-checked on INEC's website yesterday, 1, 576, 875 names were on the voters' register in Ogun State. The total number of ballots cast (both valid votes and rejected ballots) for the gubernatotial candidates was 747, 296.

However, the total number of votes cast in the presidential category was 1, 365, 367, a difference of 618, 071. Out of the total votes cast, President Olusegun Obasanjo polled 1, 360, 170 (99.92%), while General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd.) scored 680 (0.05%).

The discrepancy in the figures has thrown up a number of questions. Is it that thousands of voters in Ogun State were not interested in who becomes their governor? Is it that they were only interested in returning their kinsman to the presidency?

Did thousands of voters refuse to take the ballot paper for the gubernatorial candidates? If so what did they do with the ballot papers? Did they drop them at the polling stations or did they take them home? Or did they forget to vote in the gubernatorial category?

Were there more than 600, 000 voided yet unrecorded votes in the gubernatorial category? Are these figures from actual voting or are they cooked figures? Is there a honest mistake somewhere? Or a deliberate manipulation of figures? These and many other questions are crying for answers.

It is also noted, however, that though Ogun State posted the most staggering difference in the votes cast simultaneously, the trend is not peculiar to it. In 10 other states with full results on the INEC website, the differences ranged from 1,000 to 94,000.

In Adamawa State the difference is 94,143; in Akwa Ibom, 68,861; in Ebonyi, 1,457; in Edo, 24, 197; in Ekiti, 2,675; in Enugu, 70, 922; in Jigawa, 55, 740; in Kwara, 3, 325; in Oyo, 46, 336; and in Niger, 31, 850.

Whether they are in a few thousands or in hundreds of thousands, the differences point to the fact that something is amiss somewhere.

There are also questions about Rivers and Bayelsa states where the president and incumbent state governors scored almost 100 per cent with 97 per cent turn-out. This reminds us of elections held in Saddam's Iraq. The expired maximum dictator, Saddam Hussien, almost always scored 99 per cent in a vote where turn-out is akin to that of Rivers State. This leaves several questions unanswered especially when some local government areas like Brass recorded 100 per cent turn-out and 99 per cent vote for the incumbent.

The doubts engendered by the turn-out in Rivers which the PDP national chairman, Chief Audu Ogbeh, called "historic" cast a question mark on the credibility of the elections.

Already, the president's opponents have alleged gross manipulation of the polls. Both local and international observers have complained of lapses, irregularities and manipulation in a few states. According to the European Union observer group, "the elections were simply not credible."

Fair and square Obasanjo would have won but overzealous element within his party may have spoilt the day for him.


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